⚡ Altcoin Season and Black Friday

Let's Dive Into It!

Author

Crypto Rand
November 25, 2024

Happy Monday dear subscribers! In today’s Newsletter, It’s Altcoin Season!

In today's bulletin, we are covering:

⚡ Altcoin Season + Black Friday ⚡

Good morning ladies and gentlemen! I hope you had an amazing weekend. The market consolidated nicely and gave some great breakouts on the Altcoin market. Here some of my takes:

  • I still thinking we are just getting started, you are not late

  • We are coming from a huge bear market, so people it's biased and scared

  • If we analyze the past altcoin bull runs, we can clearly see they were triggered by a BTC Dominance decrease

  • So far, the Bitcoin Dominance only pumped up. Up +50% from the lows.

  • If we compare with previous Altcoin seasons the trend is clear and cyclical.

So I've projected the pattern from previous Altcoin season, adjusted to the same cycle of 32 months...and this is the result. Besides this technical projection, the VC activity, the regulatory framework, the retail response, the mass adoption, the AI craze... absolutely every single indicator points for gigantic bull run

Get ready, might be one of the last bull seasons in a long time. I will be with full dedication with all the team to get the most out of this season, more trading setups, more investments, more IDO's, more memes, more research...LFG 💥 

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PS: As every year...we will share the biggest discount of the year with our BLACK FRIDAY offer, check the info at the end of the newsletter!

The Big Caps Index had an amazing conslidation and it's pushing for the local breakout on the key $1,000 resistance. Great setup for bullish continuation:

 

MicroStrategy's Bold Bitcoin Bet: Targeting 4% of Supply by 2033


MicroStrategy could increase its Bitcoin holdings from 1.7% to 4% of the circulating supply by 2033, according to Bernstein analysts, who set a $600 price target for MSTR by 2025.

They highlight the firm’s “unprecedented Bitcoin treasury model” and its ability to attract global capital despite market volatility.

  • Bitcoin Ownership Growth: MicroStrategy aims to hold 4% of Bitcoin's supply by 2033, equivalent to 830,000 BTC, valued at $1 million per Bitcoin in their base-case scenario.

  • Price Target Raised: Bernstein increased MSTR’s price target to $600 for 2025, representing a 42% upside from current levels.

  • Favorable Market Conditions: Analysts cite Bitcoin's bull market, regulatory support under the Trump administration, and growing institutional adoption as catalysts for growth.

  • Low Financial Risk: Despite Bitcoin's volatility, MicroStrategy’s long-term, unsecured debt structure minimizes liquidity risk.

  • Capital Scaling: The company is ahead of its $42 billion capital-raising target, securing $9.6 billion this month alone.


MicroStrategy's stock remains volatile, dropping 20% last week amid short-selling activity, highlighting investor skepticism despite its ambitious plans.

NFT Sales Maintain Momentum Amid Slight Weekly Dip


NFTs recorded $158 million in weekly sales, a 12.7% decline from the prior week but still significantly higher than early November's $93 million.

Ethereum led in sales volume, while Solana topped in buyers. Despite market fluctuations, NFTs are poised to close November on a strong note.

  • Weekly NFT Sales Volume:

    • $158 million in sales, down 12.7% from the previous week's $181 million.

    • Still higher than early November’s $93 million.

  • Blockchain Performance:

    • Ethereum led in sales volume with $49 million, a 25.9% drop.

    • Solana recorded $23.9 million in sales but saw a 58% rise in buyers to 185,000.

    • Other chains (Polygon, Mythos, Immutable, BNB) collectively hit $35.8 million.

  • Average Transaction Value: Declined slightly from $133.08 to $126.17.

  • Monthly Trend:

    • October saw $356 million in sales, an 18% increase from September.

    • November continues strong momentum despite minor weekly dips.

The NFT market shows sustained interest, with Solana excelling in user engagement and Ethereum maintaining dominance in sales value, signaling a diversified and resilient ecosystem.

CITREA

The Origin:

Citrea is a Layer 2 protocol project developed by Chainway Labs that plans to scale Bitcoin with ZK-rollups. With this they expect to boost participation in the Bitcoin network while giving miners an extra source of revenue.

The project wants to benefit from Bitcoin’s core principles of decentralization, security, transparency, and censorship resistance, the reason why Citrea is using Bitcoin as its data availability, settlement, and verification layer.

Every transaction occurring on Citrea is secured by zero-knowledge proofs and verified by Bitcoin through BitVM.

The Operative:

To ensure data availability and integrity on the Bitcoin network Citrea processes transactions in groups, uses STARKs for zero-knowledge proofs and supports Type 2 zkEVM.

It features a two-way peg and uses BitVM for layer 2 verification and BTC bridging. Citrea uses $BTC as its native token. To avoid confusion and improve on/off-ramp UX, Citrea’s native $BTC is referred to as $cBTC.

The process can be broken down into 3 phases:

  1. Peg-in. 

  2. Transaction lifecycle. 

  3. Peg-out. 

Using the BitVM computing paradigm Citrea allows Ethereum-style smart contracts in the Bitcoin network with the purpose to make bitcoin a programmable asset and allow it to become a venue for smart contracts.

Summary & Competitors:

Citrea raised $2.7 million in a Seed round back in February 2024 led by Galaxy digital and a few weeks ago additional $14 million in a Series A funding led by Founders Fund. There are a** total of 41 investors** involved in the project.

Chainway Labs is not the only team building towards zk-rollups on Bitcoin; there is competition. Other teams working in the same direction are ZeroSync, Build on Bitcoin (BOB), Bison Labs, Cartesi Project, Sovryn (BitcoinOS), zkLayer, Bnzk, Alpen Labs, Kasar Labs (in collaboration with Taproot Wizards) and Heliosphere.

Bitcoin was designed to be a simple blockchain that prioritized security within its decentralized framework. That has given way to a scalability problem that has led to the perception of Bitcoin solely as a digital asset and a store of value. That’s the reason why various solutions have emerged to address the issue and allow builders to develop an entire Bitcoin ecosystem.

Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR)

We all know Michael Saylor for his Bitcoin purchases and his constant promotion of the cryptocurrency. By extension, we often hear about MicroStrategy, but do we really know what MSTR is and what the company does? Probably not, so let’s take a closer look 👀 

History

MicroStrategy Incorporated is an American company focused on business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services. It was founded in 1989 by Michael J. Saylor, Sanju Bansal, and Thomas Spahr to create software that analyzes both internal and external data to support business decision-making, as well as mobile software solutions.

In 1989, the company had only one client, DuPont, with a $250K contract. Later, in 1992, it secured its first major deal worth $10M with McDonald’s 🍔 

In 1998, MicroStrategy began trading on the NYSE, and in March 2000, it announced that it would restate its financial results for the preceding two years. The stock price plummeted by 62% in a single day 😭 marking what many consider the bursting of the dot-com bubble.

Connection with BTC

Up to this point, everything seems very normal, but what does MSTR have to do with BTC? 🤔 

Michael Saylor is not an early Bitcoiner who bought BTC in 2014, for example. Instead, his first purchase through MicroStrategy (MSTR) took place in August 2020, amounting to $250 million, as a treasury investment asset. The reasoning behind this decision was the low returns on cash (at that time, interest rates were extremely low due to COVID-19 and the Federal Reserve's decision to lower them) and the weakening of the U.S. dollar  💸 

By 2022, MSTR held 130,000 BTC at an average purchase price of $30,639 (a total of $3.98 billion). However, in May 2022, if the price of BTC had fallen to $21,000, MSTR would have faced a margin call, requiring it to sell part of its holdings to meet the collateral required to maintain its position. BTC dropped below $20,000 in June 2022, but MSTR avoided a margin call by adding more collateral to sustain its position. Nevertheless, in December 2022, it sold 704 BTC—the first sale—worth $11.8 million 😔 

In 2023, MSTR acquired 5,445 BTC at an average price of $27,000 ($147 million) 💰 and currently holds 331,200 BTC purchased for a total of $16.5 billion at an average cost of $49,874 🚀 

Outlook

For Saylor, Bitcoin will eventually replace gold as the premier non-governmental store of value. He is one of the most vocal BTC advocates on social media and television programs.

Saylor’s thesis is that BTC is the ideal store of value for preserving capital 🥂 He often uses the analogy that buying BTC is like buying a house in a city where everyone will want to move soon. For Michael, Bitcoin is "the apex property of the human race."

Without a doubt, he has become a major participant in the market at this point, but he is not a price mover in the sense that his purchases or sales directly impact the market’s trajectory. This is unlike major Wall Street players like Warren Buffet, whose moves can significantly sway traditional markets. In crypto, the market is more likely to react to a tweet from Elon Musk than to a purchase by Saylor.

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