Bitcoin and Crypto Market Updates (Sept 25th)

REPORTER: ‘’Is a soft landing the current base case?”

POWELL: ‘’NO, NO, I wouldn’t do that’’

This is the statement that shook markets last week as Powell took to the stand and crushed the hopes and dreams of a soft landing being the base case. As many of the discord members know, I have never bought into the fantasy a Soft Landing can be achieved… But they did it guys, they flipped the entire market from ‘’recession is 100% happening’’ at the lows, ripped markets back up using a handful of stocks while weaving in a new ‘’soft landing’’ narrative peppered with some ‘’AI’’ to provide them with ample exit liquidity.

A tale as old as time.

Anyway, what’s the outlook over the next few weeks? Oversold bounce due soon, then more down.

SPX – Hitting our first target here as we kiss the August 2022 high… I expect we find support for an oversold bounce here / in this zone.

QQQ – Right at our neckline support here, from a technical perspective it makes sense that we start to find support soon. I’m still open to a breakdown here before a bounce… then maybe we bounce and back-test the neckline flipping it into resistance.

PCC – One thing I’m confident about here is we haven’t seen enough of a spike in the PCC ratio to warrant calling for a tradable bottom. This suggests we could still see more of a spike (equity market downside) then once we hit extremes, we can get an upside bounce.

So we’re in that middle/late stage zone of the downside move… The meat of the INITIAL move appears to be done, maybe we get a few more % to the downside and see a bounce. Maybe we bounce here for a couple of days then resume the down? It's hard to predict so best to sit back, wait for those extremes and then take a trade.

A quick look at BTC and there’s really not a whole lot to report… Pure chop and consolidation. I’m totally 5050 on a downside break of the range here. Happy to be a buyer if that breakdown happens as I’m very confident this will STILL be the best-performing asset of our lifetime!

Mt Gox push back creditor repayments until 2024

The Mt Gox creditors have been waiting years for any sort of repayment from the exchange collapse back in 2014, and they will have to wait a little longer. Mt. Gox has extended the deadline for creditor repayments from October 31, 2023, to October 31, 2024. Creditors who have already submitted their data may receive repayments by year-end, while those who haven't are urged to do so promptly to ensure their repayments can begin. Mt Gox holds 142,000 Bitcoin, 143,000 Bitcoin Cash and 69 Billion Japanese yen to be distributed between creditors. A decade after the collapse and investors are still waiting for some repayment.

Coinbase say BASE token not ‘ruled out entirely’

Paul Grewal, Coinbase's Chief Legal Officer, has revealed that the idea of introducing a new token for the Coinbase-incubated Base network remains on the table. Notably, Base mainnet has witnessed a remarkable surge in daily transactions, outpacing Ethereum Layer 2 alternatives like Arbitrum and Optimism, with a daily transaction count now exceeding 1.5 million. With such thriving activity, and competing towards being the premier Ethereum Layer-2 the idea of a token must be very appealing. Feels like Coinbase will keep this on the table until they get regulatory clarity over the crypto markets moving forward.

Arbitrum treasury boosted by $57 million in unclaimed airdrop tokens

Some BIG money was left on the table by users in the Arbitrum airdrop claim. The Arbitrum Foundation has bolstered the Arbitrum DAO treasury with $57 million worth of unclaimed ARB tokens, which was 69 Million ARB tokens. Eligible recipients could claim their tokens until Sept. 24. However, despite the six-month claim period, 69 million ARB tokens remained unclaimed!

This decision to redirect the funds to the Arbitrum treasury differs from Ethereum Layer 2 rival Optimism, which chose to directly distribute unclaimed airdrop funds to eligible users. Did you claim?

Mixin Network hit by $200 million hack

Just a casual $200 million crypto hack to start the week off once again. Mixin Network suffered a significant hack resulting in the loss of approximately $200 million from its mainnet assets. The breach involved a third-party cloud service provider's database compromise, leading to the suspension of all deposit and withdrawal services. Mixin Network has enlisted blockchain investigators SlowMist and Google to aid in the investigation and potential recovery efforts. The hacker's prior involvement with Mixin Network has also come to light through independent investigation. While plans to recover the lost assets have not been disclosed yet, deposits and withdrawals will resume once vulnerabilities are addressed. Should Mixin try to cut a deal with the hacker to protect their customers' funds?

Advice I Wish I Had When Starting Anew

Trading, with its promise of financial freedom and independence, has always been an alluring endeavour. Many newcomers to the world of trading are drawn in by the potential for profit, only to discover that it's a journey filled with challenges and uncertainties. If I had the chance to start my trading journey anew, there are several crucial pieces of advice I wish someone had shared with me.

Here are the insights that could have made all the difference in avoiding some painful lessons:

1. The Power of Education

Before diving into trading, take the time to educate yourself. Read books, take courses, and absorb as much knowledge as you can. Trading isn't a gamble; it's a skill that requires understanding and practice. Equip yourself with the right tools before risking your hard-earned money.

Information when good is always profit in your pocket. Be able to filter what is helping you and don’t be overwhelmed with the rest.

2. Begin with Paper Trading

New traders are often eager to jump into live markets, I did it! However, starting with paper trading or using virtual platforms to practice can be invaluable. It allows you to make mistakes without financial consequences, build confidence, and develop a solid strategy. Also, train your eyes and help build a routine. Certainly isn’t the same as real trading, but gives you a good quick start.

A tip from me, set real-world rewards (and punishment) for yourself depending on your paper trading performance. Suddenly going to that restaurant, having those shoes, buying that device or visiting a certain place acquired a new better taste of accomplishment.

3. Setting Clear Goals

Define your trading goals clearly and realistically with a time horizon. Whether it's income generation, wealth accumulation, or a specific financial target, having well-defined goals will keep you focused and help you make informed trading decisions.

If you can divide that ultimate goal into partials to achieve in a defined timeframe such as a week or a month, that keeps you oriented and progressing toward your target. This serves for paper trading too.

4. Risk Management Rules

Risk management should be at the core of your trading strategy. Learn about position sizing, stop-loss orders, risk-reward ratios and impermanent loss. Never risk more than you can afford to lose at once (in one trade or multiple running simultaneously).

Effective risk management can protect your capital and keep you in the game until you make it. Liquidation calls shouldn't be in your DMs ever, trust me that’s hard pain avoided for you!

5. The Emotional Rollercoaster

Trading can be emotionally taxing. Fear and greed can cloud judgment, and FOMO usually kicks so hard that it is tough to control impulsive behaviours. Recognize that emotions are part of the process and have strategies in place to manage them. Staying disciplined, patient, and unemotional during turbulent times is a key to success.

Usually, emotions have a strong link to position size and risk, I suggest that you try out different amounts of risk. The one that matters enough to care about when losing it, but is not big enough to trigger your fears would be a good starting point. The objective is to be able to operate with that amount keeping emotions as muted as possible so you can act rationally instead of emotionally.

6. Continuous Learning and Adaptation

The trading landscape is ever-evolving. Stay informed about market trends, economic events, and new trading techniques. Adaptability is a trader's greatest asset that ultimately will help you trade the markets both ways. Embrace change and be ready to adjust your strategies and biases when necessary.

There is nothing wrong in trying out different strategies, just make sure you give each one of them a good amount of backtesting and you analyse the real statistics of it when you are operating it before switching to a different one just because you feel that what you are doing isn’t working or something else your neighbour is doing works better. Make educated and objective decisions. I dumped my first self-made strategy for that, and when I went back to it and took it seriously it was one of my best so far I just didn't take it seriously enough to see it’s real potential the first time.

7. The Support of a Community

Trading can be a solitary pursuit, but it doesn't have to be. Seek out trading communities, forums, or mentors. Make trading colleagues and friends to share your findings and keep your motivation high. Share your successes and learn from the mistakes of everyone.

Surrounding yourself with a bunch of traders can provide guidance, insights, and emotional support. Don't underestimate the power of a supportive network.

In conclusion, trading is not just about making money; it's a journey of self-discovery and personal growth. These pieces of advice not only apply to trading but to life itself. Whether you're navigating the financial markets or life's uncertainties, remember that knowledge, practice, discipline, and a supportive community are your greatest allies. If you're starting anew, take these lessons to heart, and may your trading journey be filled with wisdom, growth, and success.