- Crypto Rand's Trading Newsletter
- Posts
- 🎅Get Ready For Santa's Rally!
Happy Monday dear subscribers! In today’s Newsletter, Stanta's getting Ready!
In today's bulletin, we are covering:
LIVEPEER is under the spotlight.
A short article about Santa's Rally
The New Era of Crypto Lending: DeFi's Rise and CeFi's Decline
The crypto lending market has shifted from speculative practices to a more resilient and transparent system. Centralized finance (CeFi) lending has significantly declined, while decentralized finance (DeFi) lending is thriving, led by platforms like Aave v3 and Spark v1. This transformation signals a cautious yet innovative future for crypto lending.
Risky practices, such as undercollateralized loans, are no longer prevalent.
Major CeFi lenders like Genesis have exited the market.
Aave v3: Grew its total value locked (TVL) from $16.5 billion to $27 billion within a month.
Spark v1: TVL nearly doubled, from $4.5 billion to $8 billion in the same period.
The GMCI DeFi Index, which tracks DeFi assets, rose sharply in November, reflecting broader strength in the ecosystem.
The shift marks a move toward cautious, innovation-driven growth.
DeFi is positioned to fill the void left by CeFi, offering transparency and resilience in the evolving crypto financial landscape.
The crypto lending market is entering a transformative phase, with DeFi emerging as the dominant force, offering innovation and stability in a space previously marred by speculative practices.
MicroStrategy's Nasdaq 100 Milestone Sparks Aspirations for MARA Holdings
MicroStrategy has been added to the Nasdaq 100, becoming the first Bitcoin treasury company in the index, with a market cap of $94.77 billion. Crypto miner MARA Holdings, with a $7.32 billion market cap, is positioning itself as the next Bitcoin-focused firm to join the prestigious index, following significant investments in Bitcoin and calls for U.S. leadership in Bitcoin mining.
MicroStrategy joins the Nasdaq 100 with a $94.77 billion market cap, marking significant growth.
MARA Holdings aims to join the Nasdaq 100, investing $600M in Bitcoin recently.
MARA advocates for U.S. leadership in Bitcoin mining as a national security priority.
The inclusion of MicroStrategy in the Nasdaq 100 highlights the increasing institutional recognition of Bitcoin-focused firms, while MARA's push emphasizes the strategic importance of Bitcoin mining for economic and national security.
LIVEPEER
The Origins:
Livepeer is a decentralized video streaming Web3 platform that leverages blockchain technology and cryptocurrency incentives to create a more efficient, scalable, and cost-effective solution for video processing and distribution. It falls on the DePIN narrative and has some utilities related to AI.
It is an open-source protocol that enables users to upload, transcode, and stream video content in a peer-to-peer (P2P) manner, without relying on centralized infrastructure or intermediaries.
The Operative:
By utilizing a network of nodes and a token-based economy, Livepeer aims to allow content creators to monetize their work and viewers to access high-quality video content in a more secure and transparent way.
Livepeer is a protocol that provides the infrastructure for platforms to build upon it allowing platforms like YouTube, Twitch, etc. to use it. One of its strengths is the fact of censorship resistance which provides worldwide availability and virtual freedom of expression; Livehype is one example of it.
The Livepeer project focuses on various areas:
Decentralized Verification: One participant (the solver) performs the actual work and additional participants (verifiers) verify the work to detect mistakes or cheating.
P2P Video Distribution: To deliver video in a scalable way without placing undue load on centralized origin CDN servers.
Efficient Value Transfer: Reveal and test efficient off-chain payment mechanisms, to allow machines to compensate one another for resources consumed.
On-Chain Randomness: To keep things fair in the decentralized network.
AI Video Compute: Focuses on AI video processing, including upscaling, subtitling, and recognition, to support all aspects of AI video tasks and workflow enhancements.
Livepeer AI Subnet: To manage various generative AI video tasks, including generative video, generative images, and upscaling, to power the future of video innovation.
Summary & Competitors
The project has raised $51.2 million in funding from 23 investors in previous rounds, with Northzone and Tiger Global Management as lead investors. The Livepeer token, is $LPT, currently has a market capitalization of $590M with 100% of the tokens in circulation.
The platform has several competitors in the decentralized video streaming space, each with its own unique features and offerings. Theta Labs, Dlive, LBRY, Flixxo, Verasity or Contentos are the most relevant.
The video streaming sector has got an increasing demand in the last few years, by leveraging blockchain technology and cryptocurrency incentives it's possible to create a more efficient, secure, and community-driven ecosystem.
Santa's Rally
It’s that time of year when we start hearing about the famous Santa Claus rally, where the market supposedly makes a final sprint to end the year on a high note. But does it really happen, or is it just a myth? Let’s look at some numbers.
Origin
In 1972, Yale Hirsch, which was the founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac 🗓️ coined the term Santa Claus Rally to describe the final five trading days of the year and the first two of the following year.
If we analyze these 7 days as a period for the rally from 1950 to 2022, we find that the market experienced an average gain of 1.4% for the S&P 500 about 80% of the time 🚀
However, it’s not always consistent. In 2022, the market rose only 0.8%, and in 2018 it saw a drop of -10.7%, marking a "bloody Christmas" 🩸 If we consider the last 20 years, there’s no concrete evidence that it’s highly likely to occur
Reasons
Some explanations for the rally include end-of-year tax considerations, a sense of optimism as the year winds down, Wall Street holidays, and many people receiving year-end bonuses, injecting fresh funds into the market 💸
It’s also speculated that many institutional investors, those who move markets with their trading volumes, are on vacation during this period, leaving the market to retail investors, who tend to have a more bullish outlook 🤑
Conclusion
The Santa Claus rally is a market anomaly, this is a market behavior that can’t be fully explained by traditional models 🤷♂️
Like any anomaly, its occurrence is random and difficult to predict. If it were a certainty, everyone would buy ahead of the event, but this isn’t something that happens often.
It’s also worth noting that the term was coined by an almanac that also introduced the “Presidential Election Year Cycle” and the “January Barometer.” The latter refers to market increases due to tax-related effects and portfolio rebalancing 🔁
There’s no reason to adjust our strategy based on the Santa Claus rally. However, if it does happen and you were planning to exit the market to enjoy the year-end without exposure, it’s a good excuse to sell during green days and lock in your gains 💰
In conclusion, the Santa Claus rally exists to the same extent that Santa Claus does, more a belief than a reality. Still, it’s always fun to talk about it 🎄 📈
⚠️ Are you looking for the Best Trading Courses?
Professional lessons
From Basic to Advanced
Technical Analysis Guides
✅ Join here: tradingdoji.com
