Bitcoin and Crypto Market Updates (June 5th)

 Are risk assets finally getting a bid?

Last week we finally saw a bid into risk assets, things like IWM, and ARKK managed to have a few strong sessions last week as the rally in large-cap tech consolidated.

As we’ve been saying for many weeks now, for the ‘’rally’’ in stonks to be healthy we need to see the market breadth and last week we started to see that. Now we really just want to see a continuation of that theme this week to strengthen the argument that we are really out of the bear market.

One thing that still has me hesitant and questioning the moves last week is the lack of bids we're seeing in crypto. Why aren't BTC or Alts following the rally in small caps?

It's something to keep an eye on and if we get it this will strengthen the moves we're seeing. Without it, I, it's wise to remain cautious.

BTC - Still stuck in a range here, fully open to a move to 25k still - more upside expected on a break above 28.5k.

One area I feel the market is ‘’Off’’ are rate hike expectations - Currently over 80% believe the fed will pause this month! I find this pretty wild considering the ‘’strong’’ jobs data and inflation still running well above target. Why would the fed pause here? It just doesn't make sense to me and even if they pause, what happens? A continuation of a rally in risk? This stimulation would be inflationary.

This morning im read retail ploughed into NVDA last week to the tune of 250M$ - I am also seeing retail sentiment is hitting ‘’very optimistic’’

All this happens as we hit a very interesting level on SPX - worth keeping an eye on this week.

Nike NFTs possibly introduced into FIFA game

Nike has announced a partnership with EA Sports to incorporate its NFT marketplace, .Swoosh, into future video games. While specific details about which EA titles will feature Nike's virtual athletic attire have not been disclosed, the collaboration aims to bring new experiences to both the .SWOOSH community and the extensive fan base of EA SPORTS. This move follows Nike's recent release of its first NFT collection, Our Force 1, which saw significant success with over 97,000 sneakers sold to nearly 53,000 addresses. Nike plans to provide further information on how its NFTs will be integrated into EA's games in the coming months.

IRS coming after Coinbase user's data

A US Federal court has ruled that the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) can access Coinbase user data, dismissing a case that sought to block the tax agency on constitutional grounds. The court upheld the IRS's powers granted by Congress, stating that the plaintiff was not entitled to additional protections beyond existing checks on the agency's powers. The case involved a "John Doe" summons, a tactic used by government agencies to request data from a third party for tax evasion checks. The ruling reinforces the IRS's authority to obtain trading records from cryptocurrency exchanges and highlights the agency's ongoing efforts to enforce tax compliance in the digital asset space.

Hong Kong and UAE work together on a crypto framework

Hong Kong and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have joined forces to collaborate on crypto regulations and attract global crypto companies to their regions. The central banks of both jurisdictions recently met in Abu Dhabi, agreeing to establish a joint working group and strengthen cooperation on virtual assets. Senior executives from banks in the UAE and Hong Kong also organized a seminar to discuss opportunities for cross-border trade and how UAE companies can leverage Hong Kong's financial infrastructure to access markets in Asia and mainland China. The move comes as Hong Kong ends its ban on retail crypto trading and licensed digital asset firms prepare to offer services to local traders, while the UAE accepts applications from companies interested in providing crypto-related services. Both regions have seen significant interest from major crypto firms looking to expand their presence.

Proposed crypto mining bill dropped… for now

In a win for cryptocurrency miners in the United States, the proposed tax on their electricity usage has been dropped as part of the debt ceiling deal, according to Republican congressman Warren Davidson. The agreement, reached between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, will raise the debt ceiling until January 2025. The proposed tax, called the Digital Assets Mining Energy (DAME) excise act, aimed to impose a 10% tax on miners' electricity usage, gradually increasing to 30% by 2026. The move faced backlash from the crypto community, who viewed it as an attempt to sideline the industry. While the tax's removal is not yet confirmed by the White House or the US Treasury, it is a positive development for crypto miners.

Gamestop build Web3 Game Launcher

GameStop is joining forces with the Telos Foundation to create GameStop Playr, a new Web3 game launcher. GameStop will market and distribute Web3 games built on Telos' blockchain technology through this partnership. Although GameStop Playr has yet to launch and compatible games have not been announced, interested individuals can join a waitlist. GameStop's venture into the crypto space began in January 2022 with the establishment of its NFT and crypto division. Last year, the company also collaborated with Immutable X to launch its own NFT marketplace, which achieved $1 million in trading volume within 24 hours. The GameStop Playr platform will distribute games compatible with the Telos blockchain, potentially including gambling platforms like W3Poker and OwlDAO, as well as the mobile game Monkey Empire. This partnership aims to attract new customers to the Web3 gaming space and overcome barriers that prevent Web2 players from embracing Web3.

Economic Data and Trading

Successful trading sometimes requires a comprehensive understanding of the factors that influence financial markets. Macro events and economic indicators play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and driving price movements. To make informed trading decisions, integrating data like a macroeconomic calendar and events into your trading system can provide valuable insights. In this article, we will talk about that while walking some steps on how to do it.

Step 1: Select a Reliable Source

To begin, it is essential to identify a reliable source for accurate and up-to-date economic data. Several financial news websites, government agencies, and central banks provide economic calendars with scheduled releases of important economic indicators. I would aim for pure raw data sources rather than biased predictions. A popular reliable source is the Economic Calendar by Forex Factory.

Step 2: Identify Key Indicators

Next, familiarize yourself with the key economic indicators that have the most significant impact on the markets. These indicators typically include GDP growth, inflation rates, interest rates, employment data, consumer sentiment, and central bank announcements. Each country has its own set of important indicators, so it is crucial to focus on the relevant ones for the markets you trade.

Step 3: Customize Your Calendar

Most economic calendars allow users to customize their preferences and filter events based on importance, country, and type of data. Tailor your macro calendar according to your trading strategy and the specific indicators you find most relevant. By customizing the calendar, you can focus on the events that have the greatest potential to impact your trading positions.

Step 4: Establish Impact Levels

Economic events are typically categorized into different impact levels, such as high, medium, and low. High-impact events tend to have a more substantial influence on the markets, while low-impact events may have a more limited impact. Understanding the impact levels of different events helps you prioritize your attention and adjust your trading strategy accordingly.

Step 5: Alerts and Notifications

To ensure you never miss important economic releases, and avoid being caught off ward; set up alerts and notifications within your trading system. These notifications can be in the form of email alerts, pop-up notifications, or even automated trading system triggers. By receiving timely alerts, you can stay informed and make informed trading decisions based on the latest economic data.

Step 6: Analyze Historical Data

To enhance your understanding of how different economic events have affected the markets in the past, analyze historical data. By reviewing price movements and market reactions during previous releases of economic indicators, you can gain insights into the typical market responses and adjust your trading strategy accordingly. This is good for setting up expectations about volatility for example.

Step 7: Incorporate Economic Data into Trading Strategies

Once you have a comprehensive macroeconomic calendar and access to real-time economic data, it's time to incorporate this information into your trading strategies. Develop a systematic approach to analyze the impact of economic events on your trading positions. Consider how various indicators and their outcomes align with your trading strategy and risk tolerance levels. Don’t forget that staying on the sidelines for determined events is as valid as using them to participate in the markets.

Step 8: Monitor Market Reactions

During the release of key economic data, closely monitor market reactions to gauge the impact on prices. Compare the actual data with market expectations and analyze the speed and magnitude of price movements. By understanding the market sentiment and reaction patterns, you can make more informed decisions about entering or exiting trades. Usually, there is no rush in making the analysis, sometimes markets need some time to process the data.

Conclusion:

Integrating a macroeconomic calendar and events into your trading system can provide valuable insights and help you make more informed trading decisions.

Remember, combining fundamental analysis with technical analysis can enhance your trading edge and improve your overall profitability in the financial markets, just make sure that each new implementation to your system is either simplifying execution or giving better results to avoid ending up in a complex non-functional system.