🚀 The Big Bitcoin Rally is Starting!

Happy Monday dear subscribers! In today’s Newsletter, Arthur Hayes predicts a Rally!

In today's bulletin, we are covering:

• Surfing the Market, with analysis about the Mid-Caps index and DEX Index

• Don't miss the News about Bitcoin’s Rally and the Tether in South America

• AERODROME is under the spotlight.

• A short article about Black Monday

• Our selection of the best Gems on X

The Mid Caps Index tried to push a bit over the weekend but it still needs to show proper strength in order to breach the main downtrend resistance.

After a tiny bounce over the support we are back over the $3 while approaching to the key level. The next week will be decisive:

Meanwhile the DEX Index is breaching up the local downtrend resistance after 10 days of consolidation. Really liking the setup and the risk/reward here:

Arthur Hayes Closes Bitcoin Short, Predicts Potential Rally Amid US Liquidity Boost

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, has closed his Bitcoin short position after a small profit, signaling confidence in a potential Bitcoin rally next week.

• Arthur Hayes closes his Bitcoin short, earning a 3% profit.

• Hayes anticipates a Bitcoin rally due to potential U.S. liquidity boosts by the Federal Reserve.

• September's downturn aligns with historical Bitcoin cycles and may precede a price surge.

Hayes expects a surge due to potential U.S. dollar liquidity injections from the Federal Reserve, aimed at stabilizing financial markets. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rise with increased liquidity and money supply momentum.

Tether Invests $102 Million in South American Agriculture Giant Adecoagro

Tether, the issuer of the world's largest stablecoin USDT, has made a $102 million investment in South America's agricultural giant Adecoagro SA.

The purchase, made between late July and mid-August 2024, represents 9.8% of Adecoagro’s shares, making Tether the third-largest shareholder.

• Tether bought $102 million worth of Adecoagro shares, becoming the third-largest shareholder.

• Adecoagro is a leading producer of milk, rice, sugarcane, and renewable energy in South America.

• Tether sees land as a valuable and safe asset during geopolitical instability.

• Tether plans to double its workforce by 2025, focusing on development, investment, and compliance teams.

This move reflects Tether's strategy to diversify its investments beyond cryptocurrency, focusing on land and agriculture as crucial assets alongside its holdings in Bitcoin and gold.

Aerodrome

Aerodrome Finance is a liquidity solution for Base launched in August 2023.  Aiming to build an automated market maker (AMM) on top of the Velodrome V2 technology stack, which includes features like automated veNFT management, customizable pools and concentrated liquidity.

An automated market maker (AMM) is a type of decentralised exchange that uses pooled liquidity and pricing algorithms to facilitate automated crypto trading without order books. Traders swap between assets in liquidity pools, with prices adjusting based on supply and demand.

What makes Aerodrome Finance unique is its innovative incentive structure and governance model that uses two tokens to manage its utility and governance:

• $AERO — ERC-20 utility token of the protocol - distributed to liquidity providers through emissions

• $veAERO — ERC-721 governance token in the form of an NFT - is used for governance

It rewards participants who contribute to the protocol's sustainable growth, with 100% of the protocol's incentives and fees going to veAERO voters. These voters lock their AERO tokens to convert them into veAERO, a NFT that represents their voting power. The longer the lock period, the higher the voting weight.

Its main features are:

• Stable & volatile trading for low fees

• 100% of protocol incentives and fees go to voters

• Liquid locked positions in the form of NFTs

• Permissionless pools, gauges, and incentives: Aerodrome allows anyone to create new liquidity pools, gauges for staking liquidity, and configure incentives in a permissionless manner

• Anti-dilution rebases for voters

The main token $AERO has a total supply of 1,251,700,888 tokens with approximately 50% currently in circulation. Its market cap sits around $320 millions at the moment.

Base is a blockchain that has seen considerable growth recently, definitely a chain to watch for the decentralized finance (DeFi) niche. As Layer 2s continue to grow on it, Aerodrome Finance has placed as the native liquidity hub and marketplace for Base blockchain, but it will have to face competition with other AMMs that are also looking to establish in the same blockchain such as Pancakeswap, Algebra or Balancer.

Black Monday

On the 5th August, the crypto market and Wall Street experienced a day of panic, which many called Black Monday. But where does this name come from? Join me as we explore its origin and meaning.

We need to go back to 1987, specifically Monday, October 19th, when the Dow Jones dropped 22.6% and the S&P 500 lost 30% in a single day! This event marked the beginning of a market decline that would go down in history.

Although the drop cannot be attributed to one particular event or news, we can understand it as the sum of several factors that led to one of the most famous crashes in history. Let's take a look:

- A bull market that hadn’t seen significant corrections since 1982

- The emergence of computerized trading, which accelerated the sell-off

- Portfolio Insurance: a program trading strategy that aimed to hedge a portfolio of stocks by short-selling stock index futures. The programs began liquidating stocks as certain loss targets were hit, pushing prices lower

- Triple Witching: the Friday before the crash, experienced the simultaneous expiration of stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options contracts. This causes great volatility

- Mass panic: Events like these often create a domino effect. When the masses join in and start trading in panic, the fall accelerates even more

After the crash, the Fed intervened by lowering the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points. Sound familiar to something discussed this week? New regulations were also introduced to prevent flash crashes caused by computer programs.

So, on Monday the 5th, there was panic in the market, but then a reversal occurred throughout the week, ending with prices back at the same level as the previous Friday, erasing the entire drop and then printing a V-Shaped recovery.

While every time there’s a significant drop on a Monday, it gets labeled as Black Monday, it’s important to know the history to understand where the name comes from and whether something like this could happen again.

Not all Mondays are black!

Base is the New Rocketship

Arthur the Oracle

Blackrock’s Flow

Don’t sleep on this market, lots of opportunities to come, see you next week!