Good morning/evening/night guys. As every Monday, find here your weekly dose on market analysis, the most relevant industry stats, and our best tips to profit from this exciting market while learning from it!

Bitcoin

Strong BTC rejection on the key $48,200 resistance, also breached down the local support on $46,700 accelerating the drop. This move makes things bearish in the short term, with a target on the $44,000 level.

That would be the fourth retest of the support range in barely 1 month. Something not really positive. So for now I'm not looking to "buy the dip" if it goes there. Instead, a possible drop to $40,000 I think it would be the opportunity we are looking for in order to accumulate.

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Big Caps index

Taking a look into the Big Caps Index we see an even worst outcome in the short term at least. With the 3 months uptrend breaching down here after last week's fakeout. Makes me target the low's 30,000 sats level.

The volume continues fully disappeared since the summer started and for now is not back, once it kicks in we will have more solid macro indicators:

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Mid Caps index

Meanwhile, the Mid Caps Index also accelerated the drop and it's getting closer to the most relevant support on the 5,200 sats level. That would be prime range to refill bags.

Same as with the Big Caps Index, the volume response so far it's being pretty weak. The volume is also an indicator of interest, and so far seems like most of the market is expecting a further dive in the short term.

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Crypto Stats

Ethereum balance on crypto exchanges falling

Ethereum balance on crypto exchanges is on the decline this year. In last year it went up to 22 million and at the start of the current year, it was standing at 18.4 million. But due to the high institutional demand of Ethereum, its balance on exchanges decreased to 10.48 million currently.

Ethereum supply on exchanges hasn’t been at much low levels since 2018 which is bullish signal for the Ethereum.

Bitcoin usage increasing in Africa

The continent of Africa is seeing strong growth in Bitcoin usage in the last 1 year where they received more than $1 billion worth of Bitcoin compared with the previous 1 year when it was under $400 million only.

The second-quarter growth of 2021 is 127% in comparison with the same quarter of last year. A major reason for this growth is to escape the flat inflation in African countries and ease of payment to buy goods from China or other countries.

Top 5 IEO platforms by average ROI

Binance: A total of 20 IEO has been conducting on Binance that have an average ATH ROI of 18336% and a current average ROI of 10137%. Matic had the highest ATH ROI of 10300%.

FTX: FTX IEO platform has hosted 9 projects to date with an average ATH ROI of 6169% and a current average ROI of 3054%. Star Atlas has the highest ATH ROI of 19566%.

HuobiGlobal: Huobi Global also hosted 9 IEO's on their platform with an average ATH ROI of 4593% and have current average ROI of 1806%. APENFT is on top with an ATH ROI of 11917%.

Top 10 coins mentioned on Twitter Last Week

BTC: Bitcoin is on the top of the list with more than 2.08 million mentions on Twitter last week while its price recovered to $48k after dropping to $42.8k.

ETH: Eth is in 2nd place with more than 632k times mentioned on Twitter while its price remains volatile in the range of $3.1k to $3.6k.

CAKE: Cake is again in the 3rd spot this week with 377k times mentioned on Twitter while its price has seen strong growth of 25% during the last week.

Skin in the game

Symptoms of Overconfidence in trading 

Confidence is necessary whether it is a matter of business, sports, job, or in any sphere of life. In trading, you also need the confidence to play with the market as you will only be looking to take risks and take action on any available opportunities if you have confidence. But sometimes you might turn that confidence into an overconfidence bias that may affect your trading performance in the long run. 

A trader might not know about this shortcoming but overconfidence has symptoms that we will discuss today so you can evaluate yourself. 

Ranking yourself high 

People believe in themselves and are often proud of what they do and how they do but it can sometimes backfire. Staying humble with the market is necessary than anything else because it is not a friend of anyone. 

Overtrading 

Overtrading is another symptom of overconfidence bias whether this is about trading too frequently, making large trades, or taking uncalculated risks. If you have any of these symptoms you need to evaluate yourself. 

Bigger Position Size 

Position sizing is one of the biggest parts of risk management. If you are uncomfortable with your position when it is only a few percent down then it means your position size is bigger. Your position size should not be more than 4% to 5% of your trading capital. But if your trading position size is higher than this then it can be due to overconfidence bias.

High Leveraged trading 

The Crypto market is highly volatile. If you are using high leveraged trading it can destroy your account in a matter of minutes only. People with overconfidence bias tend to use high leverage and end up getting liquidated. 

Illusion of control 

Some traders think they have control over markets and it can be dangerous as they will wrongly assess the risk involved with a particular trade. If you fail to accurately assess risk, you will fail to adequately manage risk and might end up being on the wrong side. 

You might not want to accept this but no one is perfect. You can not fight with your bias but at least you can face and accept them. That is only when you will develop a defensive system against them. You need to be realistic about your abilities and about the market, otherwise, overconfidence will eat up your trading account.

Have a nice day, see you soon!Rand