Bitcoin and Crypto Market Updates (April 3rd)

Bitcoin chopping… Legacy popping.

Short bitcoin update today – This is simply because there’s not much to really report. We remain in a choppy state around this 28k level. I believe this is the interim top – might see a possible move to 30k here but realistically I think we’re at the ‘’business end’’ of this upside move.

When we look at the general crypto market performance Bitcoins rise has been replicated with BTC DOM also spiking. DOM is really moving with BTC and for me, this really shows there’s an underlying weakness in the rest of the crypto market outside of BTC.

Things can change quickly so I continue monitoring the situation and looking for possible long scalps / altcoin relief.

Heading over to LEGACY things are a bit more interesting – Taking a look at tech first we can see NQ has been on a tear and we’ve almost completed the 12345 moves here and QQQ looks exactly the same. The large caps have also been on a big run, with AAPL MSFT and NVDA all ripping higher and higher.

So in summary the bulls are in control of the legacy market here in equities – no major signs of a reversal and the technical signal a move higher is still possible.

Now if we look at market positioning we can see the market has flipped back to being called heavy but only slightly.

Then we look at sentiment and we can see the ‘’Dumb money’’ confidence over last week spiked significantly.

I don’t know about you but last week seemed a little euphoric in legacy markets when you look at equities. I hold shorts and I was certainly feeling the psychological pinch.

Then we have the developments over the weekend – OPEC cutting supply. This was unexpected and the markets reacted with OIL spiking significantly higher and pushing the commodity index into breakout territory. So this now has a danger of stoking inflation fears = fed will have to go harder = more market stress.

So look, in summary, when I look at everything on balance I REMAIN bearish on LEGACY and we’re at the business end of this rally. BTC – I am still going to be on the lookout for what we do… do we rise on more bank liquidity fears OR do we fall with tech? the jury is still out on this one and I’m excited to see what the market gives us either way.

Arbitrum DAO drama

The Arbitrum Foundation is in hot water after its token allocation process sparked controversy and caused a 6% price drop for the ARB token. Frustrated community members have accused the foundation of disregarding their input regarding the allocation of 750 million ARB tokens outlined in the Arbitrum Improvement Proposal 1 (AIP-1). In response, the foundation released a statement acknowledging the "lively discussions" but defended its decentralized governance model. However, the foundation spent 6.7% of the proposed token allocation, despite the community voting against it. Despite the foundation's explanations, tensions remain high as the community demands more transparency and input in the token allocation process.

Activision COO become Yuga Labs CEO

Yuga Labs, the company behind popular non-fungible token (NFT) collections Bored Ape Yacht Club and CryptoPunks, has a new CEO in former Activision Blizzard executive Daniel Alegre. The company aims to ramp up its metaverse efforts with Alegre on board, who played a key role in overseeing popular gaming franchises like Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, Diablo, and Candy Crush. Alegre's arrival is considered a bold move in the NFT industry, with some suggesting that it will spark the next crypto bull run in Web3 gaming.

US Government selling Bitcoin

The US government has been selling off bitcoin stolen from the darknet marketplace Silk Road but still has a whopping $1.2 billion to liquidate over the course of the year. A court filing reveals that 9,800 BTC connected to Silk Road were sold for around $215 million earlier this month, with officials racking up transaction fees of more than $215,000. The US government had seized over 50,000 BTC connected to Silk Road from hacker James Zhong's investigation and plans to sell the remaining 41,500 BTC this year in a series of four batches. The method of sale hasn't been disclosed.

Euler exploiter returns $177M after a $1M bounty on his head

The hacker behind the $200 million exploit of DeFi lending protocol Euler Finance, known only as "Jacob," has returned $177 million worth of stolen assets to the platform, apologizing for his actions and pledging to return the rest "ASAP." The hacker had a $1 million bounty on his head and even attracted the attention of North Korean hackers who tried to steal the private key information of the Euler team through a phishing scam. Jacob sent encoded messages asking for forgiveness and expressing regret for the impact his actions had on others' lives. While there's still more money to be returned, it's a positive step towards recovery for the protocol. Another wild story in crypto.

Gucci and BAYC partnership

Gucci, the Italian luxury fashion house, is partnering with creator Yuga Labs to take “an active role” in the Bored Ape Yacht Club metaverse offering, Otherside. The two companies plan to explore the intersection between fashion and entertainment in the metaverse. Gucci has already collaborated with Yuga Labs on the 10KTF project, the NFT-powered browser game created by digital artist Beeple, in which players can dress their avatars in clothes tied to digital collectibles. Gucci issued branded 10KTF outfits in Mar. 2022, with Yuga Labs acquiring 10KTF by September. Gucci aims to be a pioneer in the Web3 and NFT industry, creating digital products that express the brand's identity.

Tips for Identifying Profitable Cryptocurrency Projects.

Cryptocurrencies have gained immense popularity in the past few years, and it's not surprising that more and more people are looking to invest in them. However, with so many cryptocurrencies in the market, it can be challenging to identify projects that are likely to perform well and increase in price. In this article, we will discuss some tips to help you identify cryptocurrency projects that have the potential to provide good returns.

Understand the technology

The first step in identifying a good cryptocurrency project is to understand the technology behind it. You should look for projects that have a strong underlying technology and a clear use case. A strong technology foundation is crucial because it ensures that the project can scale and handle high transaction volumes. A clear use case is also essential because it ensures that the project solves a real-world problem and has a market demand.

Check the team

The team behind a cryptocurrency project is just as important as the technology. You should research the team members, their experience, and their track record. Look for teams that have a good mix of technical and business expertise. A team that has experience in the relevant industry is also an advantage.

Look for partnerships

Partnerships can be a good indicator of the potential success of a cryptocurrency project. If a project has partnered with established companies or organizations, it can indicate that the project is legitimate and has a strong network. Partnerships can also help to increase the project's adoption and drive demand for cryptocurrency.

Check the market cap

The market capitalization of a cryptocurrency project is a good indicator of its potential. A project with a small market cap has more room to grow compared to a project with a large market cap. However, a small market cap also means that the project is riskier, and there is a higher chance of volatility.

Look for community engagement

Community engagement is essential for a cryptocurrency project's success. Look for projects that have an active and engaged community. A strong community can help to increase adoption, provide feedback, and drive demand for cryptocurrency. Another key factor for a project's success which is driven by the community would be the project's narrative. What’s hot or interesting at the time? AI, Memecoins, and GameFi all had incredibly strong narratives which communities rallied behind.

Analyze the roadmap

A cryptocurrency project's roadmap can provide insight into its potential. Look for projects that have a clear and achievable roadmap. A good roadmap should outline the project's goals, milestones, and timeline. It should also provide transparency and accountability to the community.

Tokenomics

A good investment project should have a well-designed tokenomics model that aligns with the project's goals and provides incentives for users to hold and use the token. Ideally, the project should have a limited token supply to ensure scarcity and increase demand. Additionally, a good project should have a fair and transparent token distribution, where tokens are distributed fairly among users and not concentrated in the hands of a few (especially project owners). Finally, the token should have a clear use case within the project ecosystem, where users can benefit from holding and using the token.

In conclusion, identifying cryptocurrency projects that have the potential to perform well and increase in price requires research and due diligence. You should focus on understanding the technology, checking the team, looking for partnerships, analyzing the market cap, looking for community engagement, and analyzing the roadmap. By following these tips, you can increase your chances of identifying good cryptocurrency projects and making profitable investments. However, it's important to note that investing in cryptocurrencies comes with risks, and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose.