Bitcoin and Crypto Market Updates (December 19th)

Thought I would give you my general thoughts on BTC, ETH, SPX and the USD as we start to close out the year.

In terms of last week, I really did think we would see a retest of 4000 max pain price on SPX before we closed up the session on Friday. However, all we’ve had is selling for every session last week… I think this comes down to two things 1. End of year Tax harvesting 2. Recession realisation

The latter we have been expecting. The former has been a bit of an anomaly.

Anyway, it doesn’t matter – the outlook sucks regardless.

Bitcoin Market Update

BTC – Looking ugly – Max bounce target here is around 17.2k. Not looking to long any possible bounce – Will just be shorting around that 17.2k level. By year-end I expect us to be back down at range lows 15/15.5k

Ethereum Market Update

ETH – Also looking ugly – Max bounce target is around 1250… Will short from around that level. Expecting to see ETH around 880 / 1000 by year-end.

MAX PAIN FOR BTC ON FRIDAY = 17500

MAX PAIN FOR ETH ON FRIDAY = 1250

SPX Market Update

SPX – Just looking for a retest of around 3900 before going lower. For SPX I think we hold the range by year-end… could see 3600 before Jan but expecting it to hold. Once Q4 ERs start hitting the headlines then I think that when we see new lows on SPX. If we don’t get that in Q1 and earnings somehow remain strong then I just expect this view to roll over into Q2… and likely we just range nasty until that ER’s driven drop.

USD Market Update

USD – Expecting a bounce into the 107 area then resume down. I don’t think 2023 will be a strong year for the USD as we head into recession theme and the US economy becomes weaker. This won't be like what we’ve had before where everyone flocks to USD safety – I expect Long duration bonds to take that bid volume. 

Federal Reserve Interest

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the seventh time this year to combat rampant inflation. Last week the FED raised interest rates by another 0.5% bringing the interest rate to 4.5%. In each of the last 4 meetings interest rates were raised by 0.75%, and markets reacted positively to the news of a 0.5% raise, but we have been assured that the central bank is still far from finished in their efforts to combat inflation. 

Social Media Influencers Manipulation Scheme

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced charges against 8 individuals in a securities fraud scheme which totalled over $100 Million. It is alleged these individuals used social media platforms Discord and Twitter to manipulate exchange-traded stocks for their own gain. The defendants are accused of promoting themselves on social media as successful traders, buying positions in stocks, publicly giving false price targets and then selling their sizable positions as their followers ‘pumped’ the stocks through their buying pressure without disclosing. Typical pump and dump scheme which has landed the individuals in a lot of trouble.

Binance Audits

Binance had recently had a proof-of-reserve audit from Mazars group but in a twist last week the firm deleted their audit and has stepped away from crypto audits completely citing “concerns regarding the way these reports are understood by the public”. Binance has approached the ‘Big Four’ accounting firms - Deloitte, Ernst & Young, KPMG and PricewaterhouseCoopers for audits but currently, they are unwilling to conduct proof-of-reserves for the private crypto company. Concerning for Binance as they look to reassure stakeholders of their solvency and legitimacy.

Europe CBDC

The EU has made a central bank digital currency priority legislation for the coming years before the elections in 2024. It is believed plans will be put forward in Q2 2023 after presidents of the European Parliament signed a joint agreement outlining the priorities before the next EU elections. The list included 164 legislations - featuring a CBDC and an anti-money laundering package in relation to crypto assets. 

Paypal and Metamsk Partnership

PayPal will begin working with Metamask to provide an easy way to buy crypto for users. Users will be able to purchase ETH through PayPal directly in the Metamask application. The offering is designed to facilitate seamless purchases and transfers of ETH from PayPal to Metamask. Consensys’ (Metamask parent firm) product manager, Lorenzo Santos stated in the press release, "This integration with PayPal will allow our U.S. users to not just buy crypto seamlessly through MetaMask, but also to easily explore the Web3 ecosystem,". 

SBF Arrested in Bahamas

Samuel Bankman-Fried has been arrested in the Bahamas for his part in the FTX scandal. The disgraced Ex-CEO has not been granted bail by the Bahamas court as is considered a significant flight risk. SBF has been arrested with charges which include: wire fraud, wire fraud conspiracy, securities fraud, securities fraud conspiracy and money laundering. The timing of the arrest was suspicious after he was due to testify in front of congress on the 13th of December but could not appear after being arrested the day before.

Canada Ban Crypto Leverage

Canada has banned crypto leverage and exchanges must segregate user funds. Interestingly the changes will affect both retail and institutional/accredited investors alike in a major crackdown on locally operating crypto exchanges. Referring to the FTX debacle, the CSA announced that “Following recent events in the crypto market, the CSA is strengthening its approach to oversight of crypto trading platforms by expanding existing requirements for platforms operating in Canada”.

Trader's Daily routine

Having a daily routine can be incredibly beneficial for traders looking to improve their results and speed up their learning curve. A routine can help traders stay focused, disciplined, and organized, which are all key factors in successful trading. Here are some specific benefits of having a daily routine as a trader:

• Consistency: A daily routine helps traders establish consistent habits and routines that can lead to more consistent results. This is especially important when it comes to things like risk management, as having a consistent approach can help traders avoid making costly mistakes.

• Time management: A daily routine can help traders better manage their time and prioritize their tasks. By scheduling specific times for certain activities, traders can ensure that they are making the most of their time and not letting distractions or other commitments get in the way of their trading.

• Focus: A daily routine can help traders stay focused and avoid distractions that can disrupt their trading. By setting aside dedicated time for trading and sticking to a schedule, traders can avoid the temptation to multitask or get sidetracked by unrelated tasks.

• Discipline: A daily routine can help traders develop discipline and self-control, which are essential for success in trading. By sticking to a schedule and maintaining discipline, traders can avoid impulsive trades and make more informed decisions.

• Organization: A daily routine can help traders stay organized and keep track of their trades and progress. By setting aside dedicated time for reviewing and analyzing trades, traders can identify areas for improvement and make adjustments to their strategy as needed.

What Daily Routine to Follow?

Here is an example of a daily trading routine that any trader could follow:

1. Wake up at the same time each day and begin the day with a healthy breakfast.

2. Review the news and economic calendar for the day to identify any potential market-moving events.

3. Set up any trades that are based on the news or economic calendar.

4. Begin the day's trading session by reviewing the previous day's trades and making any necessary adjustments to current positions.

5. Scan the markets for potential trading opportunities using technical analysis and other tools.

6. Execute trades based on a predetermined strategy and risk management plan.

7. Take regular breaks to stretch and refocus throughout the day

8. .Review and analyze trades at the end of the day to identify areas for improvement and make any necessary adjustments to the trading strategy.

9. Set aside dedicated time for learning and studying the markets to improve trading skills and knowledge.

10. End the day by setting goals for the next trading session and reviewing the progress made towards long-term trading goals.

It's important to note that this is just one example of a daily trading routine, and every trader will have their own unique routine that works best for them. The key is to find a routine that helps you stay focused, disciplined, and organized, and that allows you to make the most of your time as a trader. It will set you up for success and the achievement of your goals will come more quickly.