Bitcoin and Crypto Market Updates (February 13th)

Big week this week…

Both the Technical and Macro suggest this week is going to be pivotal – We kick off with CPI tomorrow and at the same time we’re testing some key levels in the charts.

I’ll post more about CPI across the day today but my TLDR here is we get a hot CPI number… It might be in line with what the market is actually expecting (+0.5% mom) but an increase nonetheless. The market is pricing a 90% probability of a 25 hike in March, a 71% chance for another 25 in May then just a 38% chance of a 25 hike in June with 46% predicting a pause in June. The tail end of this is where I think we reprice the heaviest on a hot inflation print. Also, the odds of a 50 over the next few meetings are very low… another area you could see a reprice.

Keeping it simple guys… Refer back to my market update Monday last week where I posted some analysis on ARKK… I’m only willing to go balls to the wall on risk assets once we see the new lows being made on that chart, completing the 3 drives pattern.

Moving onto the crypto market… Starting with TOTAL 3. This is a grim-looking chart after losing the mid. Still respecting lower highs. Until we reclaim the mid this is still bearish and we have to be open to a retest of the lows of the range.

BTC – KEY zone here… If we lose this zone then we likely see the 18k levels… The only way this looks strong is if we continue to hold the mid on equity downside OR we move into the zone and bounce back to reclaim the mid-level (21336 ish). I’ll buy BTC on that reclaim-type move… Until then I’m still happy sitting on my hands.

ETH – Testing the bottom of the range here… could be breaking down as we speak. If this smaller TF range doesn’t hold then I think a good target area is around 1350… Top of previous range and a tap of this short-term trend line.

Overall guys, I know I sound like a broken record but I still see major risks on the macro front, particularly concerning the fed and inflation. We now have some headwinds in the form of regulation with regards to staking and the US regulators putting a stop to BUSD issuance that I don’t think are priced into the market.

This all sounds doom and gloom but it's all good, I’m happy to be proven wrong… All we need to see is ARKK negate the 3 drives pattern… Inflation is to come in cooler than expectations, TOTAL 3 mid reclaim and boom, we’re looking much better. And look if we do see another leg down for risk assets over the next 6 months… imo this is the one you buy hard.

So either way you should be excited about either outcome. 

No More BUSD from Paxos

The New York Department of Financial Services has ordered Paxos, the issue of Binance stablecoin BUSD, to stop from doing so going forward. The Wall Street Journal first reported the news after the revelation that the NYDFS was investigating Paxos concerning the matter. The SEC is also planning to sue Paxos alleging that the stablecoin was an unregistered security. A Binance spokesperson confirmed that "BUSD is a stablecoin wholly owned and managed by Paxos. As a result, BUSD market cap will only decrease over time. Paxos will continue to service the product, manage redemptions, and will follow up with additional information as required". The move came as a surprise to Binance who will look for alternative options in the future.

Ordinals NFTs on Bitcoin

Bitcoin NFTs… is this even possible? Well kind of. In recent weeks we have seen the revelation of Bitcoin NFTs through Ordinals. More complex than their Ethereum counterparts as not native to the blockchain at all but we are seeing more interest and activity around the development. Unlike traditional NFT minting Bitcoin ‘NFTs’ are more digital artefacts and referred to as ‘inscriptions’. It is still very early in this space and trades are conducted OTC without real wallet integration, so proceed with caution. High potential if these catch on in the future.

Kraken Remove Staking

Crypto Exchange Kraken shuts down its staking services following charges from the SEC. US customers are no longer able to stake their assets with the exchange following settlement with the SEC which saw $ 30 million paid in penalties as well. Claiming that the staking services were ‘unregistered offer and sale of securities’. Gary Gensler publicly insinuated the move as being a warning to all crypto companies and saw it as a win for the average investor…really Gary?

World's Biggest Businesses are Hiring for Crypto

Some of the world's biggest companies are hiring for crypto and blockchain positions. These include Visa, JPMorgan, Nike and many others. Here are some of the most interesting ones:

JPMorgan - Recruiting for its crypto subsidiary Onyx Mastercard - Principal Blockchain Software EngineerFidelity - Digital Assets Vice PresidentNike - Digital Operations Manager for Nike Virtual Studios Goldman Sachs - Digital Assets Audit Team Google - Digital Assets Account Executives Microsoft - Investment Partner BNY Mellon - Product Manager (Blockchain / Digital Assets) Mastercard CEO sees a future with Blockchain

Some of the largest ‘TradFi’ companies worldwide are looking to use blockchain to help rewire global finance. Mastercard CEO, Michael Miebach said “There will always be new payment technology” and made the key point that “First there were cards using ISO 8583 [ISO numbers refer to international standards] messaging technology, which is 50 years old, then real-time payments became real with ISO 20022. And then came blockchain, and we said okay, what would that solve? There’s a whole set of real-life problems out there that blockchain can solve.”

Types of Charts

Charts are an essential tool in visualising and analysing data. They make it easier for investors, traders, and data analysts to understand patterns and trends in the market. But there are different types of charts available, let’s have a look at their pros and cons.

Candlestick charts are a type of financial chart that originated in Japan over 400 years ago. They are used today still to track price movements of financial instruments such as stocks, commodities, and currency pairs. Each individual candle represents a single trading period in the interval of the display. 

Candlesticks, Bars or Line charts?

There are other kinds of charts that are also popular in use, let's see a comparison among the three more common ones; here are the ways the line chart differs from the bar and candlestick ones:

• Simplicity is the key advantage of line charts, making them ideal for beginners who want to avoid an overwhelming amount of data.

• Line charts are best suited for higher time frame charts, as they only provide an overview of the price direction without providing detailed information on open and close levels.

• The simplicity of line charts limits their ability to provide advanced technical analysis compared to bar and candlestick charts, which offer more precise insights into stop loss and take profit levels. This is why line charts are rarely used by traders who trade at lower time frames.

• The height of bar and candlestick charts provides information on market volume, which is not possible with line charts. Advanced candlestick trading patterns rely on the ability to display volume, making bar and candlestick charts more powerful.

Both bar and the candlestick show open, close, high and low prices, also bullish or bearish colour on each candle/bar. The differences between those two charts are rather minor and sometimes even negligible:

• The bar chart places more emphasis on the closing price of the previous period, while the candlestick chart uses the actual opening price of a certain time period. This difference is often negligible as the opening price of a period is often the same as the closing price of the previous one.

• Candlestick charts are preferred for the development of candlestick trading patterns, but bar charts can also be used.

• The bar chart may offer slightly better precision in drawing trendlines and zones on the chart due to its simple line format, while the candlesticks have bodies that take up more space and reduce precision. Some professional traders claim this difference has helped them make better trading decisions.

What other chart types there are?

There are several other types of charts available, personally, I use mainly candlesticks and line charts. But see how TradingView has many more that you might find interesting and useful for your trading.

PRO TIP: Line charts are especially good for spotting divergences with oscillators.

In conclusion, there are several types of charts available to traders and investors, each with its pros and cons. Candlestick charts are a popular and visually appealing type of chart that provides a wealth of information about price movements and market sentiment. However, they can be complex and misleading if not used in conjunction with other analysis tools. 

Whether you prefer candlestick charts, line charts, bar charts, or another type of chart, it is important to understand the data being represented and how to make informed trading decisions based on that data.