Bitcoin and Crypto Market Updates (February 20th)

Still, sat on the sidelines? Here’s what I’d do…

FOMO is a hard emotion to master and I expect if you are still sidelined and reading this you’re struggling by this point. On life support almost ready to throw in the towel and capitulate into a full bull.

Well, I think my message is this – If you have made it this far you might as well hold onto your bearishness UNTIL… You’ve seen these confirmations.

BTC – I posted this chart last week in the discord and it's still relevant. We’re at a really crucial level here at the range high, tagging the underside of the 200MA. I think we can still push through and enter this 28k zone (CME gap fill on the CME chart) and reject and come back into range so really we want to see this level re-captured and flip the 200MA and range high as support.

So that scenario is the first thing on my checklist

2nd SPX – Looking at the monthly log chart here and focussing on the 20MA – To give you a bullish confluence where you want to see the price back above the 20 MA and closing there. Unless my eyes deceive me this has been a reliable indicator 8 out of the last 9 times.

So waiting for a monthly close above this level would be wise.

And that’s pretty much it guys… keeping it very clean and simple.

Outside of this - Looking at SPX again here but this time on the weekly… You can see here that after every cross of the 50 and 100 MA, we have corrected HARD. Excluding that time in 2016 when we crossed for a super brief period so it does make sense to hold back for the above confirmations.

In the interim, there are still some nice swing plays… quick in-and-out trades over a shorter time period. I'd be looking at taking advantage of these and waiting for the confirmations before considering deploying the heavy bags.

Just a sidenote – Something I want to dispel quite easily here is Bulls keep screaming ‘’Disbelief rally’’ – ‘’Everyone is super bearish’’ – ‘’Everyone is under exposed’’ – TOTAL NONSENSE.

Fun fact… Retail investors added a record 1.5Bn a day into the market In January. The highest ever recorded. This was mainly fuelled by Tesla buys and the AI narrative.

I can see a case where ‘’fast money’’ reacts quicker to a market bottom than ‘’smart money’’ but to say this is a pure disbelief rally just isn’t correct. Fact.

NFT Marketplace BLUR launches token & BIG airdrop

BLUR, a new NFT marketplace, recently launched its token with a significant airdrop for early adopters. The airdrop, which exceeded $400 million in value, is one of the most significant of 2023, and early users received a share of this amount. The token's price surged to over $5 at launch before declining to less than $1 as users sold their airdrops. BLUR's rise in NFT trading volume, which surpassed that of Opensea on several occasions, may be attributed to the airdrop's enticing rewards. As BLUR plans more airdrops for its users in the future, it may continue to take market share from Opensea, the dominant NFT marketplace.

Abu Dhabi launches $2 billion fund to accelerate growth in web3

Abu Dhabi's Hub71 tech ecosystem has launched the Hub71+ Digital Assets initiative to back Web3 and blockchain technology startups in the region with $2 billion. The initiative aims to support startup growth in the Middle East and global markets by providing access to a range of programs and potential partners, as well as promoting business relocation to Abu Dhabi. The program will be based in the Abu Dhabi Global Market financial district, with the First Abu Dhabi Bank's research and development hub, FABRIC, as the anchor partner. Abu Dhabi has been supportive of the crypto industry, having introduced digital asset regulation in 2018.

German industry giant SIEMENS issues first digital bond on the blockchain

Siemens, the third largest publicly traded company by market cap in Germany, has issued a €60 million digital bond on the Polygon blockchain to reduce paperwork and increase efficiency in executing transactions. The bond has a maturity of one year, and Siemens has not disclosed the interest rate. The move away from paper-based securities issuance means that bonds can be sold directly to investors, without relying on intermediary services of banks, and eliminates the need for paper-based global certificates and central clearing. This marks Siemens' second move into blockchain technology, having previously worked with JPMorgan Chase to develop a blockchain-based payment system in December 2021.

SEC investigating Do Kwon

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed a lawsuit against Do Kwon and Terraform Labs alleging the sale of unregistered securities and violation of anti-fraud provisions under federal securities laws. The chargesheet claims that the defendants secretly bailed out TerraUSD (UST) in mid-2021 to repeg the stablecoin with the dollar, resulting in billions more in investor capital being invested. Do Kwon is also alleged to have sold more than $100 million of his stash of 10,000 bitcoin since the collapse of TerraUSD. The SEC is seeking civil money penalties, disgorgement, and a ban on Kwon from buying or selling crypto assets. This is the latest SEC action against a crypto entity, highlighting the regulator's continued scrutiny of the sector.

Hong Kong plans to lift ban on retail trading in crypto

The Hong Kong regulator proposed relaxing the rules that ban retail investors from buying crypto tokens from licensed platforms, following debates among lawmakers who wanted to ease the prohibition. The regulator has also mandated all crypto trading platforms operating in the city to be approved by the Securities and Futures Commission by June 2024, with the threat of enforcement action for non-compliance. Huobi plans to establish a new platform to apply for the SFC license. The regulator is seeking input from industry experts on relaxing the ban for retail investors, with proposed provisions that limit trading to tokens with the largest market cap, and possible closure of companies that fail to meet regulatory requirements.

Designing Your Own Trading Strategy

Every trader has a trading strategy that they have carefully crafted and refined over time. In this article, we'll explore some of the steps you can take to design a winning trading strategy that fits your individual trading goals, risk tolerance, and personality.

Every person’s circumstances are unique and that’s enough reason for each trader to have a unique strategy to fit their own circumstances. But there are some common steps to follow in the development of that strategy, let’s have a look at them:

Define Your Goals:

The first step in designing your own trading strategy is to define your goals. What do you want to achieve through trading? Are you looking to make short-term profits, or are you focused on long-term growth? Defining your goals will help you determine what type of trades to make and how to manage your risk.

It's important to be specific and realistic when setting goals. For example, instead of saying, "I want to make a lot of money," a more specific goal might be, "I want to generate a 20% return on my investment in the next 12 months."

Develop Your Trading Plan:

Once you have a clear understanding of your goals, it's time to develop your trading plan. This plan should outline your approach to trading, including your trading style, the markets you will trade-in, and your entry and exit strategies.

Your trading style will depend on your personality and risk tolerance. Some traders prefer to make many small trades throughout the day, while others prefer to hold positions for longer periods. Your trading plan should also include a list of markets you plan to trade in, such as stocks, options, or futures. Your entry and exit strategies should be well-defined and based on your analysis of market conditions.

Conduct Technical Analysis:

To identify potential trades, traders often rely on technical analysis, which involves analyzing price charts and market data to identify trends and patterns. Technical analysis can help you determine when to enter and exit a trade and can inform your overall trading strategy.

There are many technical indicators and tools available to traders, such as moving averages, support and resistance levels, and oscillators. It's important to select the indicators that work best for your trading style and goals.

Manage Your Risk:

Managing your risk is a critical component of any trading strategy. You need to establish stop-loss orders to minimize your losses and implement position sizing to ensure that you're not overexposed to any one trade.

Position sizing refers to the amount of capital you allocate to each trade. A common rule of thumb is to risk no more than 1-2% of your account on any one trade. This helps to minimize your risk and prevent large losses that can be difficult to recover from.

Backtest Your Strategy:

Once you've developed your trading strategy, you need to test it to ensure that it's effective. Backtesting involves using historical market data to simulate trades using your strategy, allowing you to identify areas for improvement and refine your approach.

Backtesting can be done manually or with the help of trading software. It's important to use a large sample of historical data to ensure that your strategy is robust and can perform well under a variety of market conditions.

Conclusion

Designing your own trading strategy is a process that requires patience, discipline, and a willingness to adapt. By following the steps outlined in this article, you'll be on your way to creating a trading strategy that fits your unique trading goals and style, and that maximizes your chances of success in the market. Remember to continually evaluate and adjust your strategy as market conditions change, and to remain focused on your long-term goals.