Bitcoin and Crypto Market Updates (January 9th)

Well, Guys, we’re finally here…

Since the start of the year, we’ve had a slight 60/40 tilt to see some upside. We wanted 1300 ETH, 17300 BTC and 4000 SPX – And we’re pretty much here.

I’ve opted to add some light short exposure on ETH here, but I will be patient and wait for the deviation (happening now) and a fall back into range with a rejection (Not yet happened).

Bitcoin and Ethereum Market Updates

BTC – Still waiting for higher but the script will be the same. Deviation, wait for the fall back into range before adding anything meaningful.

Heatmaps are exhausted – most of the short stops have been taken so we’re running on fumes up here imo and we would need spot to step in to keep the price moving up.

SUMMARY: Don’t overcommit short, wait for the technical confirmations before adding a fully sized position.

Stock Market Update

My reason for pause comes from the equity market here:

NQ is the interesting one, as we deviated and managed to close back into the range on the higher timeframe so there’s no reason not to expect a move back to the mid-range.

10Y Yields – We managed to close under a key technical level last week suggesting we could get more downside in Yields = Inflation expectations are down and this is ahead of key CPI data this week so is the bond market trying to tell us something here?

I’ve mentioned many times that I expect inflation to come and go this year. When that will happen is unclear but looking at the action at the start of the year I can’t help but think we get a drop off in inflation in H1… then it returns to H2 sometimes. Inventory pressure and massive discounting from retailers over the holidays / January + the drop in commodities recently have me thinking maybe it is H1 we see the drop off… and what does that do to equities?

Of course, if CPI comes in hot this week that thought is off the table… Maybe worth a revisit next month.

Is Huobi Closing?

Huobi plans to cut down its workforce by 20% in the coming months as the bear market takes its toll. The revelation came out following rumours that the exchange had also taken down all internal communication channels as well as suggesting employees would be required to take their wages in stablecoins. With concerns over insolvency rumours, founder Justin Sun also moved $100M in stablecoins to the platform to secure up the crypto exchanges finances. In the aftermath of FTX and a loss of confidence in CEX in general this is just another example of the instability and fear in the markets currently.

Digital Currency Group investigated by the DOJ

Fears around Digital Currency Group (DCG) and their financial positioning have ramped up in the last weeks - especially with their dealings with its seriously fractured subsidiary Genesis. DCG are being investigated in the ‘early stages’ by the DOJ and SEC about the financial interplay between the two entities. Although there are no charges currently for either of the entities, the contagion effects of the brutal crypto bear market and FTX contagion are being felt massively.

Mango Markets $100M hacker arrested in Puerto Rico

The hacker who stole over $100M from Solana DeFi project Mango Markets last year has now been arrested in Puerto Rico concerning the incident. The US Department of Justice made the arrest for market manipulation offences, making the hacker (Avi Eisenberg) the first person to be arrested on such allegations within DeFi. Eisenberg had also exploited FortressDAO for $14M back in February 2022 - it is unclear whether charges for this will be brought against him also.

NFT Markets pumping

Recent weeks have seen a resurgence in NFT valuations, volume and interest with a mini bull run of their own taking place in the last 30 days. We have seen top collections such as Bored Ape Yacht Club rise over 25% in floor price valuations, as well as many of the top 50 projects rising by 50% or more in price. Volumes have seen consecutive weeks of increase for the first time in over 6 months - indicating sustained improvements in the NFT markets. How long will it last? With current macroeconomic conditions still being poor - only time will tell.

Judge rules that Celsius own $4.2B in customer assets

Last week, a federal bankruptcy judge ruled that Celsius Network owns customer deposits in the interest-bearing accounts made before the lender went under. Meaning Celsius Network won the rights to 600,000 Earn customers’ crypto funds totalling over $4.2 Billion. The ruling read, “when the cryptocurrency assets (including stablecoins, discussed in detail below) were deposited in Earn Accounts, the cryptocurrency assets became Celsius’s property; and the cryptocurrency assets remaining in the Earn Accounts on the Petition Date became the property of the Debtors’ bankruptcy estates”. The shocking and seemingly unfair revelation emphasises the age-old crypto adage ‘not your keys, not your crypto’.

Coinbase New Program

Coinbase last week reached a settlement with the New York Department of Financial Services for $100M over compliance program issues. Apparently, Coinbase will be forced to pay $50M in fines and another $50M into bolstering its compliance programs for the future. The fines came after the NYDFS found that Coinbase had inadequate measures to prevent criminal conduct such as fraud and money laundering, noting that their KYC requirements were a simple “check-the-box exercise”.

Is SBF Guilty?

Disgraced FTX founder and ex-CEO pleaded not guilty to all 8 criminal charges on Tuesday of last week. Charges including wire fraud, conspiracy to commit money laundering and conspiracy to misuse customer funds, and others were all denied. Just last month SBF was released on a $250M bail concerning the offences and seems he will battle this to the end to avoid prison time.

5 Common Mistakes to Avoid Investing in the Cryptocurrency Market

Are you interested in investing in cryptocurrency, but need help figuring out where to start?

There are several common mistakes that investors make in the cryptocurrency market, but by being aware of them and taking steps to avoid them, you can protect your capital and maximise your potential returns.

In this article, we'll discuss five common mistakes to avoid in the cryptocurrency market:

1. Not doing your research

2. Not diversifying your portfolio

3. Not having a long-term perspective

4. Failing to secure your investments

5. Falling for scams

By following my recommendations, you can minimise your risk and increase your chances of success in the cryptocurrency market. Let’s get into some details!

What is the importance of researching crypto?

One common mistake that investors make is not doing enough research before buying cryptocurrency. It's important to thoroughly understand the market, the technology behind the cryptocurrency, and the team behind the project before investing. Failure to do so can lead to poor investment decisions and potential losses.

To avoid this mistake, make sure to do your due diligence before buying any cryptocurrency. Research the market trends, read about the technology and the team behind the project, and consider seeking out expert opinions before making a decision.

How can diversifying your cryptocurrency portfolio help to spread risk and increase returns?

Another mistake that investors often make is not diversifying their portfolios. Putting all of your eggs in one basket can be risky, as it means that your entire portfolio is tied to the performance of a single asset. If that asset performs poorly, it could lead to significant losses.

To avoid this mistake, consider diversifying your portfolio by investing in a range of different cryptocurrencies. This can help to spread risk and potentially increase your returns.

Why is it essential to have a long-term perspective when investing in cryptocurrency?

It's important to remember that cryptocurrency is a long-term investment. While it's possible to make short-term profits through day trading or other strategies, it's important to have a long-term perspective when it comes to your investment goals.

To avoid getting caught up in the short-term fluctuations of the market, consider setting long-term investment goals and stick to a plan to achieve them.

How can you secure your cryptocurrency investments to protect against hacking and other security breaches?

Cryptocurrencies are stored in digital wallets, which can be vulnerable to hacking or other security breaches. It's important to take steps to secure your investments by using a reputable wallet and enabling any available security features. Failing to secure your investments could result in the loss of your cryptocurrencies.

To avoid this mistake, make sure to use a secure wallet and enable any security features that are available such as cold storage.

What steps can you take to avoid falling victim to scams in the cryptocurrency market?

Unfortunately, the cryptocurrency market is not immune to scams. It's important to be aware of potential scams and to do your due diligence to avoid falling victim to them.

To avoid scams, be cautious of any investment opportunities that seem too good to be true and stay aware of what you sign or where you log in. Do your research and only invest in reputable projects. Consider seeking out expert opinions or consulting with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

In conclusion, there are several mistakes that investors should be aware of when it comes to cryptocurrency. By doing your research, diversifying your portfolio, having a long-term perspective, securing your investments, and being aware of potential scams, you can minimise your risk and increase your chances of success in the cryptocurrency market.